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SECOND SUBSCRIPTION DRIVE – 2014 – WEEK TWO

The first week of our new subscription drive went quite well.  In fact, it was one of the best first weeks of a subscription drive that we've had at Urgent Agenda.  Thank you to new subscribers and to our old reliables.  But this is just the start.  More is needed.  Please help keep Urgent Agenda running by subscribing or donating.

This week we began our second subscription drive of 2014.  This is a critical year for Urgent Agenda – perhaps the most important midterm election year in America's recent history.  But maintaining our daily, day and night, coverage of this year is costly.  It is subscribers and donators who keep us going.

Like all political sites, we face increasing competition each week as more bloggers join the internet.  As a site in our sixth year, we face the reality that some subscribers will drop out, and some will pass.  We've had several sad moments in the last few months.  Our retention rate is still spectacularly high, but there will still be a certain amount of slippage.

Please consider subscribing or donating by going to the right-hand column of this page, under SUBSCRIPTIONS.  You can subscribe through PayPal, or use several other methods that are listed.  If you wish to use regular mail, just let me know at service@urgentagenda.com, and I'll give you a traditional brick-and-mortar address.

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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas yesterday.  It's here.

JUNE 30,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE

Excuses, excuses:  Just returned from a wonderful trip to central Virginia, where my older daughter lives.  When we drove down Thursday I published SHORT TAKES rather late, and explained that we had just completed a long road trip.  Same excuse tonight, with an asterisk.  We were returning from Virginia, and I encountered a non-life-threatening but extremely uncomfortable medical "issue," requiring a visit to an emergency room.  I'm all repaired now, thanks to the fine folks at Union Hospital in Elkton, Maryland.   But obviously we were substantially delayed.

I also wish to thank my wife, who finally convinced me to go to a hospital rather than to my computer.

It's 1:36 a.m. here.  I'll try to get a few posts up in a little bit, but excuse me if I have to be brief.

GOVERNMENT MOTORS...AGAIN – You see all those cars on the road, and you wonder how many of them have serious flaws.  In fact, it's quite a few.  From Fox:  "General Motors (GM) on Monday announced six new recalls covering 7.55 million vehicles in the U.S., as the automaker continues to address safety issues.  After calling back 2.6 million compact cars for a defective ignition switch, GM has unveiled a slew of additional recalls in recent months. The company now expects to take a second-quarter charge of $1.2 billion, up from a previous estimate of $700 million.  GM’s latest batch of recalls ranges from model-years 1997 to 2014. The company said it is aware of seven crashes, eight injuries and three fatalities. The fatal crashes are connected to the largest recall, which covers 6.8 million older model full-size sedans for inadvertent ignition key rotation."   We wonder how defects can exist year after year without manufacturers taking action.  If we believe in free enterprise, we must hold the captains of free enterprise responsible for poor oversight of their corporations.

ACCURATE?  – We get the sense that Hillary is stumbling.  One poll now shows her below 50%.  From the Washington Examiner:  "Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's fumbles and bumbles in the rollout of her latest memoir, Hard Choices, has knocked the wind out if her easy sail to the White House and put her support in key 2016 presidential election matchups below 50 percent for the first time.  At a time when she should be padding her lead over the top Republican contenders, her underwhelming effort has cut her numbers, said pollster John Zogby.  In his latest Zogby Analytics survey taken June 27-29, for example, her commanding leads over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie have shrunk greatly, and she doesn't even receive 50 percent of the vote. Worse, her support among married and wealthy voters has plummeted."  The question is whether Zogby's poll is accurate.  It doesn't have the greatest reputation.  But let's see what other polls say in the coming weeks.  If Hillary starts slipping across the board, we'll know she's in trouble.  We'll also know that if her new book starts selling for a dollar, less at Stop-and-Shop.

NEW MIDEAST TENSIONS – Three Israeli teenagers kidnapped several weeks ago have been found dead, and buried in shallow graves.  The kidnappings attracted international attention.  Now there are calls in Israel for military retaliation against those found responsible for the despicable act.  Tensions have rarely been higher.  From WaPo:  "JERUSALEM — The Israeli army confirmed Monday evening that search teams found the bodies of three kidnapped Israeli teenagers, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that the Islamist militant group Hamas, which it accuses of the abductions, will pay a heavy price.  Speaking at the start of a meeting of his security cabinet following the grisly discovery, Netanyahu said, 'Hamas is responsible, and Hamas will pay.' He said the three 'were kidnapped and murdered in cold blood by wild beasts.' The teenagers were abducted June 12 as they made their way home from their religious school in the ­Israeli-occupied West Bank."  There is war and upheaval all around Israel.  All it will take is a spark like these murders to start another Arab-Israeli war. 

June 30, 2014     Permalink

THE SUPREMES WILL SING – The Supreme Court is about to hand down a decision that could have serious implications in the battle between religious liberty and the implied right to health-care coverage.  From National Journal:

The Supreme Court won't strike down Obamacare's contraception mandate, but a ruling for the law's challengers could still render the policy toothless for millions of women.

The justices are set to rule any day now in a challenge to the birth-control mandate, and any decision against the policy would have ripple effects far beyond the two companies that filed this lawsuit. Just how far, however, depends on how broadly the Court rules—and it has plenty of options.

No matter what happens, the Court won't strike down the entire mandate. The two companies that brought their challenge to the Supreme Court—Hobby Lobby and Conestoga Wood Specialties—haven't asked the justices to ax the entire policy.

The most sweeping option is a broad First Amendment proclamation that all corporations have a fundamental right to exercise religion, in this case by refusing to cover birth control in their employees' health care plans. This outcome would be almost a sequel to the Citizens United case on campaign finance laws and free speech. It would probably open the door for any company to challenge a slew of state or federal regulations, and would allow any corporation to avoid the contraception mandate—potentially affecting millions of women.

(Many employers, however, particularly large companies, probably wouldn't want to cut contraception coverage. It's a popular benefit and far cheaper than covering a pregnancy or a baby.)

But a sweeping First Amendment ruling might not be the most likely option, based on the questions Justice Anthony Kennedy asked during oral arguments and Chief Justice John Roberts's general preference for narrower decisions. The Court could easily go smaller if it sides with Hobby Lobby.

COMMENT:  Read the whole piece.  It's a very good analysis.  This is a very complicated issue, with merit on both sides, and plenty of demagogues on both sides as well.  I'd imagine the Court will look for a way to permit free exercise of religious conscience by those who do not wish to cover certain procedures, but at the same time insist that women receive this coverage, if they wish it, in some manner.  Not easy stuff.

June 30, 2014       Permalink

CHANGING TIMES – The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, which is becoming less liberal under new ownership, has become the latest voice to call for a special prosecutor to probe the IRS scandals.  This is a major story, not only because Americans are demanding the truth, but because an investigation could hobble a Democratic presidential nominee in 2016.  From The Hill: 

President Obama’s administration should appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the IRS’s improper scrutiny of Tea Party groups, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune said Sunday.

The IRS said this month that former agency official Lois Lerner’s computer crashed in 2011, leaving them unable to recover an untold number of her emails over a two-year period.

That loss of emails, the Star-Tribune said, was “eye-rollingly convenient,” and showed that Attorney General Eric Holder should appoint a special prosecutor.

“The IRS expects Americans to hold onto receipts and other documents for years,” the paper’s editorial said, echoing an argument from House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.).

“The agency’s lackadaisical data management suggests a higher bar for the public than agency officials. That the IRS dallied in telling Congress about the lost e-mails raises further questions about what happened.”

Congressional investigations into the IRS have intensified in the two weeks since the IRS told lawmakers about Lerner’s missing emails. Lerner, the former chief of an IRS division overseeing tax-exempt groups, is the central figure in the controversy.

Republicans have increasingly called for a special prosecutor in recent months. Top lawmakers in the party were skeptical of a special counsel was needed shortly after the controversy broke in May, 2013, in no small part because Holder is charged with appointing the prosecutor.

COMMENT:  Of course, that is clearly a problem.  Holder might well appoint a "special prosecutor" who is in the vest pocket of the Obama administration.  Or, he might "study" the matter for two years. 

However, it is also possible that a special prosecutor, once appointed, might well go rogue, worried about his own reputation, and actually do a competent job.  The Dems dread this.  I suspect they realize what would be uncovered.

June 30, 2014       Permalink

NEW TERROR WARNING – No, the war on terror is not over, as Field Marshal Obama declared.  If anything, it's more critical today than ever before.  From ABC News: 

The Obama administration may ask overseas partners to enhance security measures at airports and is weighing whether to do the same here at home to address deepening concerns that terrorists in war-ravaged Syria are trying to develop a new generation of bombs that could be smuggled onto commercial planes, ABC News has learned.

"[This threat] is different and more disturbing than past aviation plots," one source said.

And...

The back-and-forth has been based on intelligence showing that a particularly extreme "subset" of terrorist groups in Syria was working alongside operatives from al Qaeda's prolific offshoot in Yemen to produce "creative" new designs for bombs, as one source put it.

Specifically, U.S. officials learned that associates of the al Qaeda affiliate in Syria -- the Al Nusrah Front -- and radicals from other groups were teaming up with elements of the Yemen-based group Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which built such innovative devices as the "underwear bomb" that ultimately failed to detonate in a plane over Detroit on Christmas Day 2009.

Bolstered by more recent intelligence, U.S. analysts believe the "subset" of extreme terrorists in Syria could be looking to down a U.S.- or European-bound plane, with help from one of the thousands of Americans and other foreign fighters carrying U.S. and European passports who have joined Al Nusrah Front and other groups in the region.

COMMENT:  Sooner or later, our opponents will get lucky again, as they were on September 11, 2001.  The story assumes that they will be content to down one plane.  I'd imagine their dreams are greater than that. 

June 30, 2014       Permalink

SHALL WE SEND A CAKE? – It didn't take them long, did it?  ISIS has now declared an Islamic caliphate, and the declaration is being taken very seriously.  From Reuters: 

An offshoot of al Qaeda which has captured territory in Iraq and Syria has declared itself an Islamic "caliphate" and called on factions worldwide to pledge their allegiance, a statement posted on Islamist websites and Twitter said on Sunday.

The move poses a direct challenge to the central leadership of al Qaeda, which has already disowned it, and to conservative Gulf Arab rulers.

The group, previously known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), has renamed itself "Islamic State" and proclaimed its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as "Caliph" - the head of the state, the statement said.

"He is the imam and khalifah (Caliph) for the Muslims everywhere," the group's spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani said in the statement, which was translated into several languages and read out in an Arabic audio speech.

"Accordingly, the "Iraq and Sham" (Levant) in the name of the Islamic State is henceforth removed from all official deliberations and communications, and the official name is the Islamic State from the date of this declaration," he said.

The Sunni Muslim militant group follows al Qaeda's hard-line ideology but draws its strength from foreign fighters, battle-hardened from Iraq.

It seeks to re-create a medieval-style caliphate erasing borders from the Mediterranean to the Gulf and deems Shi'ite Muslims to be heretics deserving death.

"It is incumbent upon all Muslims to pledge allegiance to (him) and support him...The legality of all emirates, groups, states, and organizations, becomes null by the expansion of the khalifah's authority and arrival of its troops to their areas," the statement said.

In Syria, the group has alienated many civilians and opposition activists by imposing harsh rulings against dissent, even beheading and crucifying opponents, in areas it controls.

In Iraq it has been accused by rights groups of carrying out mass executions in the northern city of Tikrit and in Lebanon the group claimed a suicide attack at a hotel on Wednesday.

Charles Lister, Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Doha Center, saw considerable significance in the group's declaration.

"Whatever judgments are made in terms of its legitimacy, (the) announcement that it has restored the Caliphate is likely the most significant development in international jihadism since 9/11.

"The impact of this announcement will be global as al-Qaeda affiliates and independent jihadist groups must now definitively choose to support and join the Islamic State or to oppose it."

COMMENT:  And opposing this group internationally is precisely who?  Barack Obama?  John Kerry?  Hillary Clinton?  Chelsea Clinton?

Developments like this new declaration are often laughed at.  I wouldn't laugh.  These people are serious.

June 30,  2014     Permalink

JUNE 29,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE

MAJOR POLITICAL NEWS – From the Weekly Standard:  "President Obama's closest advisor, Valerie Jarrett, says there's no way, no how Michelle Obama runs for political office. But will Jarrett? The aide is leaving that possibility open."  Well, at least we'll have Valerie's expertise.  We wouldn't want to do without the person who's given Barack Obama such wise advice on public policy.  Okay, stop laughing.

GREAT MOMENTS IN MEDICINE – Guess the Obamacare planners left something out.  From USA Today:  "Federally funded programs will add at least 2,300 new primary care practitioners by the end of 2015, but the funding for at least one of those programs is set to expire at the same time, contributing to a massive shortage of doctors available to treat patients — including those newly insured through the Affordable Care Act and Medicare.  The U.S. is expected to need 52,000 more primary care physicians by 2025, according to a study by the Robert Graham Center, which does family-medicine policy research. But funding for teaching hospitals that could train thousands more of these doctors expires in late 2015."  Better get your place in line and bring a long novel.

FIRST OF THE SEASON – From CBS:  "MIAMI (CBSMiami) – A tropical depression is poised to form off the coast of Florida by Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.  As of 8 p.m. Sunday, the area of concern is located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine.  The National Hurricane Center said there is a 60 percent chance of development in the next two days and an 80 percent chance of development into a tropical system within five days."  Just remember, this never happened before Al Gore was born. 

June 29, 2014       Permalink

WEIRD, MAN...OR WEIRD MAN – Does President Obama get it?  Does he understand what's happening around him?  Does he realize that the ship has hit the iceberg and the passengers are trying to get into the lifeboats?

He was reversed unanimously by the Supreme Court in one decision this week, and partially lost in a second.  He is plunging in the polls.  Around the world, his word is laughed at.  And yet, he is absolutely defiant, seeming to believe that he is above the deliberations of ordinary men and must act, even in violation of the Constitution, to save the children.  From Breitbart:

Saturday in his weekly address, President Barack Obama continued to threaten lawmakers that he would "act on his own" if they refused to accept his agenda because he claimed Republican obstructionism is keeping the system "rigged against the middle class."

“This obstruction keeps the system rigged for those at the top, and rigged against the middle class. And as long as they insist on doing it, I’ll keep taking actions on my own – like the actions I’ve taken already to attract new jobs, lift workers’ wages, and help students pay off their loans,” Obama said. “I’ll do my job, and if it makes Republicans in Congress mad that I’m trying to help people out, they can join me, and we’ll do it together.”

COMMENT:  Yeah, we've seen those great new jobs, many of them part-time.  And watch those wages soar, especially in retail work and food service. 

And look at those smiling students.  Watch their loans melt away.

And hear the cheers of the middle class as their electricity and gasoline prices soar.

You know, I just can't wait to join the Obama revolution.  Please send checks to...

June 29, 2014       Permalink

ELIZABETH WHO? – The buzz around the internet increasingly involves the possibility that Hillary Clinton may not be the Democratic nominee in 2016, but that her replacement will be...Elizabeth Warren.

Warren, the senator from Massachusetts, and self-described defender of the average American, is the sentimental favorite among progressives.  Even the way she wears her hair appeals to the intellectual elites of the Democratic Party, who have concluded that Obama is so over, and really isn't left-wing enough.

Thomas Lifson, at American Thinker, gives his take:

I am rapidly coming to the preliminary conclusion that Elizabeth Warren will be the Democrats’ 2016 standard bearer. Hillary Clinton is just too unlikable (remember that Barack Obama called her “likable enough” in one of the most memorable back handed compliments of recent political memory), and too transparently greedy, self-serving, and out of touch. Not to mention the appalling foreign affairs crises the United States faces in the wake of her term as Secretary of State. Her brand is tarnished.

And...

Warren is very smart to pretend she’s not running. Let Hillary Clinton continue to self destruct, ably aided by Chelsea (“I don’t care about money”), the 600k per year part time NBC star-without-starpower, and Bill, who can’t stop boasting about his wealth.

COMMENT:  Question:  Could Elizabeth Warren win a presidential election?  The answer is yes.  She would need only one ally – a truly bad Republican candidate.  And remember how hard Republicans work to lose elections. 

But a good GOP choice could put Warren away.  Yes, she won a Senate election, but it was in Massachusetts, where Stalin would have a good shot, working from his home base in Cambridge.

This could get interesting.  Hey Scott Walker, how about it?

June 29, 2014        Permalink

BACKWARD IN IRAQ – The government, which we more or less support, appears to be losing more ground to the Islamist rebels.  From Fox: 

Iraqi government forces have reportedly been forced to pull back from the northern city of Tikrit after an offensive to reclaim the city from Sunni Muslim militants was blunted by fierce fighting.

The BBC, citing eyewitnesses, reported Sunday that the Iraqi army had fallen back to the town of Dijla, approximately 15 miles to the south. The witnesses said that the government forces' drive to retake Tikrit had been hampered in part by the large number of improvised explosive devices laid on the approach to the city. The witnesses said that security forces continued to shell the city, though what damage those shells may have done is unclear.

Iraqi officials had claimed that troops had pushed into the heart of the city in what was the biggest attempt yet by the Baghdad government to reverse a series of defeats suffered earlier this month at the hands of the Al Qaeda-inspired Islamic State in Iraq and The Levant (ISIS). The militants have surged across Sunni-majority areas of the north and west, menacing the capital and bringing the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to the brink of collapse in the process.

Tikrit, the hometown of former Iraq dictator Saddam Hussein, was overrun by ISIS fighters on June 11 as part of an offensive that also swallowed up Iraq's second-largest city, Mosul.

COMMENT:  No one can guarantee it, but I'd imagine that if we'd had an American stabilization force in Iraq, at least some of this mess could have been prevented. 

The truly frightening news of the last few days is that ISIS has its eyes on neighboring Jordan, perhaps America's closest Arab ally, and an island of relative stability in the Arab world.  An ISIS thrust into Jordan would have to bring a sharp American reaction, if we want to have any influence left in the region.  Maybe Obama doesn't.

June 29,  2014     Permalink